ONE44 Platform Blog

SP

The SP has now rocketed off of the long term levels that we mentioned over 3 weeks ago, as being the area that could take this market back to new highs for the year. Last Monday they traded just below the 200 day average at 1261.00 and the 1×1 angle coming up from the low made on 3/6/09 at 665.75, this level was 1266.00. They now are all the way up to the 1×1 angle coming down from the high for the year at 1373.50 on 5/2/11, that angle is 1327.00 on the nearby continuation chart. The close on Friday was above the angle and on Tuesday it must stay and close above it to confirm that the market wants to go to new highs for the year. The 1×1 is very important and a close back below it on Tuesday would give us a sell signal that should take them back down to test the lows that they rallied from last Monday. Along with a close back below the 1327.00 1×1 we would need to see a close below 1306.00 to confirm to us that they will not be going for new highs for the year right now.

NASDAQ

The NASDAQ rally also held their key long term levels before ralling last week, they went right into the 2×1 angles coming up from the 2 lows on 7/1/10 and 8/27/10. The 1×1 angle coming from the high for the year on 5/2/11 at 2428.00 is at 2382.00. We would like to see the SP get the second close above their 1×1 at 1327.00 and the NASDAQ close above their 1×1 at 2382.00 to help confirm the very positive view, of new highs for the year. Whether you trade just the SP or NASDAQ it is best to keep an eye on both for the key levels. If the NASDAQ does not get up to their 1×1 and the SP closes back below their 1×1 at 1327.00 on Tuesday, it will take a close below 2300.75 to tell us their rally is over.

EURO

You have now seen how important the 1×1 angles are with the rally off it below at 1.4100, it took the market right up to the 1×1 coming down from the 1.4925 high on 5/4/11 at 1.4500, they traded above this level, but did not close above it and until it does we would look for a test of the 1.4040 low. On a close above 1.4500 we would look for new highs for the year. The 1×1 angles do not come into play that often, but when the do you have to respect them.

The SP was only able to get down to the first of the key long term levels at 1260.00 on Thursday, this is the 1×1 angle that started out at 1257.00 on Monday. The June contract traded as low as 1258.00 and the September contract which is now the nearby contract traded as low as 1252.25. While the market could turn from hitting just the first of the key levels, it would take a close above 1279.50 and then 1296.25 to tell us that the low is in for now and to look for a rally that takes the market to new highs for the year. Until it can close above these levels we would still watch for the SP to trade down to and through more of the long term levels that are now at 1256.00, this is the 200 day average, 1246.00 is the last 1×1 angle below and the two levels that will remain constant are the Square of 9 Gann level at 1242.00 and the 38% retracement of the move from 1373.50 down to 1002.75 at 1231.75. All of these levels are so key to the long term trend that two closes below the last 1×1 angle at 1246.00 would tell us that the long term trend is turning very negative. Two closes below the 1×1 would usually be enough to say it has been violated, but because of the 38% retracement of such a key move is just below the 1×1 we would also want to see it close below 1231.75 when it has those two closes below the 1×1 to confirm it from a different method. As always ONE44 keeps everyone up on the short term opportunities throughout the week on the platform.

The NASDAQ has continued to close below its key 1×1 angle at 2233.00, the downside target remains at 2149.00. The extreme 2×1 angle coming up is now up to 2164.00. Because we would still like to see the SP trade down to the bigger levels below, we would also like to see the NASDAQ hitting the downside target of 2149.00 at the same time. The best scenario would be for the NASDAQ to trade below the 2×1 angle and get down to the 2149.00 target then close back above the 2×1. If this does happen there will be a couple levels above that they will need to close through to confirm that a rally from this area should take them back to the highs for the year. With two closes below the 2149.00 area the targets will be 1976.00 and then the 1×1 angle at 1950.00.

The Euro hit the downside target of 1.4202 then traded below the 1×1 angle at 1.4110 and closing back above the 1×1 in that same day it gave us a buy signal. In one day it is already at 38% back of the break at 1.4273, two closes above this level and the target will be the 1×1 above at 1.4600, failing from this level after hitting the 1×1 will be negative and you should look for a break down to the last 1×1 below at 1.4030, closing below here and the target becomes 1.3755, this is the level that would have to be taken out to turn the long term trend very negative.

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The SP is getting down to the long term target of 1242.00, after breaking from our long term swing point at 1369.50. The area of 1257.00 to 1231.75 has a host of big reasons why the market should hold this area and start a rally that takes them back to new highs for the year and not holding these levels will be a very bad sign for the longer term trend as it will turn negative after 2 closes below 1242.00. First we will go over all the of the levels below that should stop the current break, starting with 1257.00, this is the 1×1 angle from the 3/6/09 low of 665.75, the 200 day average is at 1251.00 and the 1242.00 level is the 1×1 angle coming up from the 7/6/10 low of 1002.75, it is also a major Square of 9, Gann level and the last level of 1231.75 is a 38% retracement from the 1373.50 high and the 1002.75 low. This is a very broad range to watch for a turn, but getting down to any or all of these levels and then taking out the swing point for the day will be a sign that a major turn is starting. Remember with the 1×1 angles that you want to see them get through them by 5 and even 15 handles and then close back above the angle to confirm the signal. So, the perfect scenario would be that they trade below the 1242.00 1×1, maybe as low as the 38% retracement at 1231.75 and then close on the high for the day back above the 1×1. As always we will be guiding you through this process as it evolves with our short term market outlook. As stated above the target on the upside as long as these levels hold will be new highs for the year. The other view of this market is that 2 closes below the last 1×1 angle at 1242.00 will turn the long term outlook to very negative and the downside targets will be 1179.00 and then 1103.00, this is a 38% retracement from the 1373.50 high down to the 665.75 low. The 1103.00 is a long way away and the most important thing to watch will be the swing points above each day to look for a sign of a earlier turn back up.

The NASDAQ has had 1 close below their 1×1 angle at 2233.00 and on Monday it must stay and close below it to confirm the negative view, as long as they do the targets will be 2149.00 and then the next 1×1 angle at 1945.00. Because of the situation in the SP still having to close below 1242.00 to confirm it has turned negative and that the NASDAQ has to have a second close below its 1×1 you will have to watch the NASDAQ down at the 2×1 angle at 2190.00. Trading down to this level or below because it is an angle and then takes out the swing point on the day and closes back above the 2233.00 1×1 will be a very positive sign. On a close back above the 2233.00 1×1 the upside target will be the same as the SP, new highs for the year.

The Euro has come off from the 1×1 angle at 1.4650 from the 1.4925 high on 5/4/11, the high was 1.4695 in the June contract, we are now trading September and the downside target to start will be 1.4202 and then the 1×1 below at 1.4110. Aside from the 1×1 angles, not making a new high on the run up to test the 1.4925 high is a negative sign and the target because of this is 1.3755. It will take a close above the 1.4650 1×1 angle to turn the market very positive and this should lead to a rally that takes them back to their all-time high of 1.5986.

Real-Time Market Analysis

7:51:59 AM CST
The swing points are 1315.50 and 2302.25 in the NQ.

8:53:05 AM CST
On a break from the 1315.50 swing point trade zone, look for 1305.25, above it turns the day positive, look for 1323.75. The NQ needs to get back below the 2302.25 swing point to be negative, above it look for 2316.00.

2:33:23 PM CST
On a break from the 1323.75 level look for the new swing point at 1316.00. The NQ swing point is 2305.50.

Intraday Swing Charts

Real-Time Market Analysis

7:51:59 AM CST
The swing points are 1315.50 and 2302.25 in the NQ.

8:53:05 AM CST
On a break from the 1315.50 swing point trade zone, look for 1305.25, above it turns the day positive, look for 1323.75. The NQ needs to get back below the 2302.25 swing point to be negative, above it look for 2316.00.

2:33:23 PM CST
On a break from the 1323.75 level look for the new swing point at 1316.00. The NQ swing point is 2305.50.

Intraday Swing Charts

Real-Time Market Analysis

8:05:04 AM CST
The swing points are 1335.00 and 2349.75 in the NQ. The Morning Call has been updated.

8:21:23 AM CST
On a rally from the long term swing point trade zone of 1319.25 look for the new swing point on the day at 1328.75.

8:34:49 AM CST
The swing points are now 1328.75 and 2338.75 in the NQ.

9:21:58 AM CST
On a break from the 2336.50 swing point trade zone, look for 2318.25, above it turns the day positive, look for 2346.00.

9:27:57 AM CST
The SP must stay below the 1328.75 swing point to remain negative, look for a test of the low, taking it out after holding the 1319.25 long term swing point will turn it very positive.

10:04:08 AM CST
The SP and NQ need to make new lows on this break to keep the market very negative, no new lows, look for a rally up to the swing points again.

10:11:30 AM CST
On a rally from the 2318.25 level in the NQ look for the new swing point at 2334.25, below it 2308.00.

10:18:09 AM CST
Continue to use the 1319.25 long term swing point like a 1×1 angle as mentioned in the Morning Call, below it is very negative, above can still cause a good rally, the swing point is now 1328.25.

10:23:51 AM CST
The 1328.75 short in the SP has been closed to add the new swing point at 1328.25.

10:49:42 AM CST
The swing point in the SP is down to 1326.00.

11:49:33 AM CST
On a break from the 2334.25 swing point in the NQ look for new lows, above turns the day positive, look for 2344.25.

1:10:35 PM CST
The SP must stay below their 1326.00 swing point to remain negative, look for 1318.75, above it 1334.25.

Intraday Swing Charts

Real-Time Market Analysis

7:32:24 AM CST
The swing points are 1345.00 and 2397.00 in the NQ.

8:33:48 AM CST
Tight resistance is 1354.00 and 2412.25 in the NQ.

9:13:28 AM CST
On a break from the tight resistance at 1354.00 in the SP look for the swing point at 1345.00, above it 1358.00.

9:19:34 AM CST
The Euro big hit the 1.4838 trade zone below it look for the days swing point at 1.4715, above it look for 1.4921.

11:05:27 AM CST
On a rally from the 2397.00 swing point trade zone look for 2418.00, not being able to get above 2408.75 will be negative look for new lows.

2:38:54 PM CST
On a break from the 1358.00 trade zone look for the new swing point at 1348.00, not being able to get below 1353.50 will be very positive look for new highs.

Intraday Swing Charts

Real-Time Market Analysis

7:59:59 AM CST
The swing points are 1338.00 and 2387.00 in the NQ.

8:25:03 AM CST
The swing point in the SP is 1338.50.

9:44:31 AM CST
On a rally from the 2387.00 swing point in the NQ, look for 2398.25, below it turns the day negative, look for 2366.00.

1:07:24 PM CST
On a break from the 1348.00 trade zone look for the new swing point at 1339.00, above it look for 1353.00.

1:14:30 PM CST
On a break from the 2398.25 level in the NQ look for the swing point again and then 2379.75, above it 2418.00.

2:11:19 PM CST
The swing points are up to 1340.25 and 2391.75 in the NQ.

2:47:13 PM CST
The swing points are up to 1344.75 and 2395.00 in the NQ.

2:58:25 PM CST
On a break from the 1353.00 level look for the 1344.75 swing point, not getting below the tight support at 1347.50 will be very positive look for new highs.

Intraday Swing Charts

Real-Time Market Analysis

8:00:10 AM CST
The long from 1273.75 in the SP was closed to put in the 1299.25 swing point, above it look continue to look for 1308.00.

8:45:15 AM CST
The swing point in the SP is up to 1300.00.

10:08:19 AM CST
The SP missed the 1300.00 trade zone by 2 ticks above it look for 1308.00, below it turns the day negative, look for 1294.25.

12:45:33 PM CST
On a break from the 1308.00 trade zone look for the new swing point at 1301.00, above it is very positive, look for 1313.50.

Intraday Swing Charts

Real-Time Market Analysis

8:16:52 AM CST
The swing points are 1306.50 and 2290.00 in the NQ.

8:39:05 AM CST
On a rally from the 1296.00 level in the SP look for the new swing point at 1304.50, below it is very negative look for 1288.75.

8:41:57 AM CST
On a rally from the 2271.25 in the NQ look for the new swing point at 2287.50, below it is very negative look for 2251.50.

9:05:23 AM CST
The SP needs to stay below 1296.00 to remain very negative, below it look for 1288.75, back above it look for the new swing point at 1303.25.

9:10:36 AM CST
On a rally from the 2251.50 level in the NQ look for the new swing point at 2266.75, below it keeps the day very negative, look for 2226.25.

9:15:05 AM CST
The swing point in the SP is down to 1301.75, tight resistance is 1297.75.

11:15:37 AM CST
On a break from the swing point trade zone in the NQ look for a test of the low, above it turns the day positive,look for 2276.75 and then 2291.50.

1:50:54 PM CST
On a break from the 1301.50 swing point in the SP look for 1293.25, above it turns the day positive, look for 1308.00.

2:27:00 PM CST
The SP needs to remain above 1301.50 to be positive, look for 1308.00, back below it look for 1293.75.

Intraday Swing Charts